Super Rugby Predictions #2: Week 4 2013

Southern Kings

Can my local team, the Southern Kings, win it this weekend against my favourite team, The Sharks?

Last weekend’s predictions were a teeny bit off… okay they sucked, but that is how it goes. This week heralds the arrival of v1.1 of my prediction engine. A few changes were made in the inner workings, firstly, small adjustments to balance the handicap score out a bit with the teams performance building up to that specific point and also added sort of compensation amount to adjust the final predictions.

See last weeks predictions here

Hurricanes vs Crusaders

All Time

  • Average Score:  19  – 28
  • Hurricanes W-D-L: 5 – 15 – 3

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 18 – 27
  • Hurricanes W-D-L: 2 – 6 – 2

My Prediction: Crusaders by 1

The Crusaders are off to their usual bumpy start, and the Hurricanes still have something to prove this year. Should be a close one despite what the stats show us.

Rebels vs Reds

All Time

  • Average Score: 11 -32
  • Rebels W-D-L: 0 – 4 – 0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 18 – 33
  • Rebels W-D-L: 0 – 2 – 0

My Prediction: Reds by 18

The Rebels haven’t beaten the Reds in any of the 4 games played between these two teams, including 2 at home. I don’t see that changing this year either, but they haven’t had a completely bad start to the year and barely lost to the Waratahs last week

Highlanders vs Cheetahs

All Time

  • Average Score: 27 – 20
  • Highlanders W-D-L: 7 – 0 – 0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 26 – 15
  • Highlanders W-D-L: 3 – 0 – 0

My Prediction: Highlanders by 11

Both teams are coming from a heavy Chiefs defeat, but the Highlanders have had time to lick their wounds. The Cheetahs are a bit more worse for wear, they’re travelling from 2 weeks of losses, the first to the Sharks at home and then the whipping they got last week in Hamilton

Brumbies vs Waratahs

All Time

  • Average Score: 24-22
  • Brumbies W-D-L: 9 – 11 -0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 31 – 14
  • Brumbies W-D-L: 7 – 2 – 0

My Prediction: Brumbies by 2

History show that home games between these 2 teams favours the Brumbies, but as with any local derby game, anything can happen

Stormers vs Chiefs

All Time

  • Average Score: 26 – 24
  • Stormers W-D-L: 8 – 6 – 0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 23 – 21
  • W-D-L: 4– 2 – 0

My Prediction: Chiefs by 13

The Chiefs have been on fire, so if they can break through the brick wall that is the Stormers defense, they should get a decent gap.

Kings vs Sharks

All Time

  • Average Score: N/A
  • W-D-L: N/A

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: N/A
  • W-D-L: N/A

My Prediction: Sharks by 5

I’m very torn about this game, the Sharks are my favourite team, but the Kings on the other hand are the first local team to get a shot at the Super 15, despite a large percentage of the province’s talent playing now for the other SA teams. I kinda want them to win all possible game this year and based on the support they had against the Force, I expect it to be a major boost for the local team again.

Blues vs Bulls

All Time

  • Average Score: 35 – 26
  • Blues W-D-L: 9 – 5 – 0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 42 – 19
  • Blues W-D-L: 7 – 0 – 0

My Prediction: Blues by 7

The Blues look on fire and they should win this one, although not as easy as you’d think.

Final Table positions prediction:

CL: Conference Leaders

WC: Wildcard Teams

(+/-): Position Change from previous week

  1. (+2) Bulls (CL)
  2. (+1) Crusaders (CL)
  3. (-2) Brumbies (CL)
  4. (+2) Sharks (WC)
  5. Chiefs (WC)
  6. (-1) Blues (WC)
  7. (+2) Waratahs
  8. (-1) Hurricanes
  9. (-1) Stormers
  10. (+1) Kings
  11. (-1) Reds
  12. Highlanders
  13. (+1) Force
  14. (+1) Cheetahs
  15. (-2) Rebels

To view previous predictions and more info on how I get the predictions , click here: http://myconflictedself.wordpress.com/super-15-predictions-archive/

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