Super 15 Predictions Archive

2012 Super Rugby season

Super 15 Prediction Engine Archive

Predictions Archive:

Overall Accuracy up to Week 6: 20/35 – 57%

Needs some major improvement, need to relook final prediction calculations or something

Week 6 (Version 1.1) Accuracy: 3/7 – 43%

Chiefs vs Highlanders

  • My Prediction: Chiefs by 15
  • Actual: Chiefs by 12
  • Prediction: Excellent

Crusaders vs Kings

  • My Prediction: Crusaders by 2
  • Actual: Crusaders by 35
  • Prediction: Good

Reds vs Bulls

  • My Prediction: Bulls by 25
  • Actual: Reds by 5
  • Prediction: Wrong

Force vs Cheetahs

  • My Prediction: Force by 4
  • Actual: Cheetahs by 9
  • Prediction: Wrong

Sharks vs Rebels

  • My Prediction: Sharks by 2
  • Actual: Sharks by 57
  • Prediction: Good

Stormers vs Brumbies

  • My Prediction: Brumbies by 10
  • Actual: Stormers by 13
  • Prediction: Wrong

Waratahs vs Blues

  • My Prediction: Blues by 4
  • Actual: Waratahs by 3
  • Prediction: Wrong

Week 5 (Version 1.1) Accuracy: 4/6 – 66%

Highlanders vs Hurricanes

  • My Prediction: Hurricanes by 1
  • Actual: Hurricanes by 4
  • Prediction: Excellent

Waratahs vs Cheetahs

  • My Prediction: Cheetahs by 2
  • Actual: Cheetahs by 1
  • Prediction: Excellent

Kings vs Chiefs

  • My Prediction: Chiefs by 6 (for my Superbru, I decided to go for Kings by 2)
  • Actual: Chiefs by 11
  • Prediction: Excellent (not so much for my Superbru)

Crusaders vs Bulls

  • My Prediction: Crusaders by 4
  • Actual: Crusaders by 22
  • Prediction: Good

Reds vs Force

  • My Prediction: Reds by 1
  • Actual: Force by 7
  • Prediction: Wrong

Sharks vs Brumbies

  • My Prediction: Sharks by 1
  • Actual: Brumbies by 19
  • Prediction: Wrong

Week 4 (Version 1.1) Accuracy: 3/7 – 43%

Hurricanes vs Crusaders

  • My Prediction: Crusaders by 1
  • Actual: Hurricanes by 1
  • Prediction: Wrong

Rebels vs Reds

  • My Prediction: Reds by 18
  • Actual: Reds by 10
  • Prediction: Good

Highlanders vs Cheetahs

  • My Prediction: Highlanders by 11
  • Actual: Cheetahs by 17
  • Prediction: Wrong

Brumbies vs Waratahs

  • My Prediction: Brumbies by 2
  • Actual: Brumbies by 29
  • Prediction: Good

Stormers vs Chiefs

  • My Prediction: Chiefs by 13
  • Actual: Stormers by 2
  • Prediction: Wrong

Kings vs Sharks

  • My Prediction: Sharks by 5
  • Actual: Sharks by 9
  • Prediction: Excellent

Blues vs Bulls

  • My Prediction: Blues by 7
  • Actual: Bulls by 7
  • Prediction: Wrong

Week 3 (Version 1.0) Accuracy: 4/6 – 66% 

Blues vs Crusaders

  • My Prediction: Crusaders by 12
  • Actual: Blues by 19
  • Prediction: Wrong 

Waratahs vs Rebels

  • My Prediction: Waratahs by 13
  • Actual: Waratahs by 5
  • Prediction: Good

Reds vs Hurricanes

  • My Prediction: Hurricanes by 6
  • Actual: Red by 6
  • Prediction: Wrong

Chiefs vs Cheetahs

  • My Prediction: Chiefs by 6
  • Actual: Chiefs by 42
  • Prediction: Okay

Bulls vs Force

  • My Prediction: Bulls by 6
  • Actual: Bulls by 10
  • Prediction: Excellent

Sharks vs Stormers

  • My Prediction: Sharks by 4
  • Actual: Sharks by 6
  • Prediction: Excellent

Week 2 (Beta Version) Accuracy 4/7 57%

Highlanders vs Chiefs

  • My Prediction: Chiefs by 1
  • Actual: Chiefs by 14
  • Prediction: Good

Rebels vs Brumbies

  • My Prediction: Brumbies by 12
  • Actual: Brumbies by 17
  • Prediction: Excellent

Bulls vs Stormers

  • My Prediction: Stormers by 4
  • Actual: Bulls by 8
  • Prediction: Wrong
  • Version 1 Engine predicted Bulls by 6

Hurricanes vs Blues

  • My Prediction: Hurricanes by 9
  • Actual: Blues by 14
  • Prediction: Wrong
  • Version 1 Engine predicted Hurricanes by 1, working on fix for predicting unexpected performance wildcard

Reds vs Waratahs

  • My Prediction: Reds by 12
  • Actual: Reds by 8
  • Prediction: Excellent

Cheetahs vs Sharks

  • My Prediction: Cheetahs by 10
  • Actual: Sharks by 7
  • Prediction: Wrong
  • Version 1 Engine predicted Sharks by 3

Kings vs Force

  • My Prediction: Kings by 4
  • Actual: Kings by 12
  • Prediction: Good

Week 1 (Beta Version)

Rebel vs Force

  • My Prediction: Rebels by 3
  • Actual: Rebels by 7
  • Prediction: Excellent

Brumbies vs Reds

  • My Prediction: Brumbies by 5
  • Actual: Brumbies by 18
  • Prediction: Good

About:

As mentioned in my inaugral Super 15 Predictions post, myself and a few friends have been playing fantasy rugby league for years now and for the past few, I have been putting together a spreadsheet, which started as a way of tracking my changes and the results of that season (2011).

Over time I have added more and more stats and have even gone as far as creating a combination of formulas which gave me kicking stats, try stats, win and loss percentages. I started basing my player transfer decisions on these stats, by guessing which team was more likely to win.

From these stats, I created a sort of performance score with 2 variations, current season performance and 2006-present performance. These are then broken down further with 4 weighting variations and then the minimum and maximum are used to predict all sorts of things such as final season standings and help me to predict games.

Last year I started playing Superbru for the Super 15 as well. I kinda lost interest in it due to other stuff happening in my life, but I still worked on perfecting my engine for making predictions.

So this year I’ve gone all out. I did dicover a flaw in my formulas which rely on season stats and historical data (my stats go as far back as 2006, the start of the Super 14)

The problem was that with no data for the current season, the formulas didn’t work (dividing by 0 and the rest). I’ve fixed that now, but it didn’t help for my first 2 weeks of predictions which were complete guesswork. (For my first two week’s predictions,

But as with everything, I always take it to the next level. So now I have created a actual match predictor, which after putting in some previous results between the two teams, gives me a prediction.

It works something like this and I welcome input into perfecting it in the comments section. I created a sort of handicap score based on which team is playing who, on their home/away win percentage, the minimum and maximum weighted performance scores and finally by the overall season home and away win percentages.

Each week I will try predict the match outcomes and also the final standings based on the above.

Revision History:

7 March 2013 – Minor update

28 January 2013 – First official predictor

2011-January 2013: Development & Beta testing

28 February 2013: Version 1

3 responses

  1. Pingback: Super Rugby Predictions #1: Week 3 2013 | My Conflicted Self

  2. Pingback: Super Rugby Predictions #2: Week 4 2013 | My Conflicted Self

  3. Pingback: My Conflicted Self

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