Super Rugby Predictions #1: Week 3 2013

Week 3 Predictions

For several years now, I have been playing a Super Rugby fantasy league game from Ultimate Dream Teams with 2 friends.

When I do things, I tend to go all out, so over time I have created a sort of “prediction engine” which I can’t say works 100% (yet), but I’m still pretty proud of it. For more history on it and for more info on the how and why, have a look at my Super 15 Predictions Archive page (link on top or click here). My first two week’s predictions are also there, since I discovered one or two flaws in my tracking of season stats, which kinda broke my “prediction engine”

For now though here are my week 3 predictions, even though the first game has already ended with the Blues winning 34 – 15 (which like the Hurricanes game last week has pointed out another flaw in my engine – it doesn’t account for a team like the Blues having a surprisingly good start to this year’s competition

Blues vs Crusaders

All Time

• Average Score:  22  – 26
• Blues W-D-L: 9 – 12 – 0

Home Game Advantage

• Average Score: 22 – 21
• Blues W-D-L: 6 – 5 – 0

My Prediction: Crusaders by 12

Even though I thought the Crusaders would walk away with this one, the Blues are surprising me this year

Waratahs vs Rebels

All Time

• Average Score: 34 – 12
• Waratahs W-D-L: 4 – 0 – 0

Home Game Advantage

• Average Score: 29 – 15
• Waratahs W-D-L: 2 – 0 – 0

My Prediction: Waratahs by 13

Can a good looking Rebels team surprise me like the Blues above?

Reds vs Hurricanes

All Time

• Average Score: 23 – 28
• Reds W-D-L: 5 – 11 -0

Home Game Advantage

• Average Score: 22 – 24
• Reds W-D-L: 3 – 5 – 0

My Prediction: Hurricanes by 6

It should be the Hurricanes but who knows

Chiefs vs Cheetahs

All Time

• Average Score: 27-26
• Chiefs W-D-L: 2 – 1 -0

Home Game Advantage

• Average Score: 27 – 26
• Chiefs W-D-L: 2 – 1 – 0

My Prediction: Chiefs by 6

Should be the Chiefs, but the Cheetahs can always surprise.

Bulls vs Force

All Time

• Average Score: 25 – 23
• W-D-L: 3 – 3 – 0

Home Game Advantage

• Average Score: 30 – 30
• W-D-L: 1 – 1 – 0

My Prediction: Bulls by 6

The Bulls don’t have a good record against the Force for some reason, so could go either way

Sharks vs Stormers

All Time

• Average Score: 20-22
• W-D-L: 9 – 9 -0

Home Game Advantage

• Average Score: 21 – 20
• W-D-L: 5 – 4 – 0

My Prediction: Sharks by 4

Old rivals, pretty evenly matched, could possibly be a serious nail-biter or damn boring game

Final Table positions prediction:

1. Brumbies (CL)
2. Crusaders (CL)
3. Bulls (CL)
4. Blues (WC)
5. Chiefs (WC)
6. Sharks (WC)
7. Hurricanes
8. Stormers
9. Waratahs
10. Reds
11. Kings
12. Highlanders
13. Rebels
14. Force
15. Cheetahs

To view previous predictions and more info on how I get the predictions , click here: https://myconflictedself.wordpress.com/super-15-predictions-archive/

Related articles

• Super Rugby Round 4 Preview: head-to-head (3news.co.nz)
• Crusaders, Blues in heavyweight clash (iol.co.za)
• Super Rugby 2013: Preview and Predictions – Round 3, Part 1 (bowlphilosophy.wordpress.com)
• Super Rugby 2013: Preview and Predictions – Round 3, Part 2 (bowlphilosophy.wordpress.com)
• Force the paupers as Kings create history (news.smh.com.au)