Archive for March, 2013

Super Rugby Predictions #3: Week 7 2013

My highlights for the Easter weekend are the Chiefs vs Blues and the Stormers vs Crusaders (both on Saturday)

First off, I have been a little bit slack, but mostly busy, with posting the past two weeks of predictions beforehand, but in the interest of monitoring my progress completely, I have updated my past two weeks of predictions in the Archive and they weren’t pretty. Week 4 also wasn’t much better. For weeks 4 & 6 I only managed to get 3/7 right each week and week 5 saw me only get 4/6. So moving along then, I hope week 7 can bring me a better result…

See all this year’s predictions here

Highlanders vs Reds

All Time

  • Average Score:  29  – 22
  • Highlanders W-D-L: 9 – 7 – 0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 38 – 17
  • Hurricanes W-D-L: 7 – 0 – 0

My Prediction: Highlanders by 4

I’m tempted to say that the Reds will win it, but the home game stats speak for themselves here, the Highlanders should get away with their first win!

Hurricanes vs Kings

All Time

  • Average Score:  N/A
  • W-D-L: N/A

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score:  N/A
  • W-D-L: N/A

My Prediction: Hurricanes by 4

Relative newcomers the Kings play their second NZ conference game against the Highlanders. The severe beating that was incurred against the Crusaders last week has shown them what to expect and I still have hopes for them, even if my predictor doesn’t…

Chiefs vs Blues

All Time

  • Average Score:  26 – 24
  • W-D-L: 9 – 10 – 0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 25 – 21
  • W-D-L: 4 – 5 – 0

My Prediction: Chiefs by 10

Without considering past scores, the Chiefs should take this one by at least a try or two. No matter what happens though, this should be a very high scoring game with at least 80 points on the board

Brumbies vs Bulls

All Time

  • Average Score:  32 – 27
  • W-D-L: 8 – 6 – 0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score : 39 – 22
  • W-D-L: 5 – 1 – 0

My Prediction: Brumbies by 4

Should be the Brumbies game, considering their form this year and that they have the home advantage!

Cheetahs vs Rebels

All Time

  • Average Score:  37 – 24
  • W-D-L: 2 – 0 – 0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score : 41 – 21
  • W-D-L: 1 – 0 – 0

My Prediction: Cheetahs by 3

The Cheetahs have come back from a successful Australasian leg, while the Rebels are coming from a major ass-whipping in Durban against the Sharks.

Stormers vs Crusaders

All Time

  • Average Score:  21 – 30
  • W-D-L: 4 – 13 – 0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score:  23 – 28
  • W-D-L: 4 – 5 – 0

My Prediction: Crusaders by 12

The Crusaders have bounced back nicely the past few weeks… and the Stormers have a few injury concerns.

Waratahs vs Force

All Time

  • Average Score:  21 – 30
  • W-D-L: 4 – 13 – 0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score:  18 – 17
  • W-D-L: 1 – 2 – 1

My Prediction: Waratahs by 4

Against my better judgement I’m gonna back the Tahs, even though the Force could surprise them…

Related articles

March 28, 2013 | Categories: CharlieV the Sports Fan, Information, Rugby, Sports, Super Rugby Predictions | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Super Rugby Predictions #2: Week 4 2013

Southern Kings

Can my local team, the Southern Kings, win it this weekend against my favourite team, The Sharks?

Last weekend’s predictions were a teeny bit off… okay they sucked, but that is how it goes. This week heralds the arrival of v1.1 of my prediction engine. A few changes were made in the inner workings, firstly, small adjustments to balance the handicap score out a bit with the teams performance building up to that specific point and also added sort of compensation amount to adjust the final predictions.

See last weeks predictions here

Hurricanes vs Crusaders

All Time

  • Average Score:  19  – 28
  • Hurricanes W-D-L: 5 – 15 – 3

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 18 – 27
  • Hurricanes W-D-L: 2 – 6 – 2

My Prediction: Crusaders by 1

The Crusaders are off to their usual bumpy start, and the Hurricanes still have something to prove this year. Should be a close one despite what the stats show us.

Rebels vs Reds

All Time

  • Average Score: 11 -32
  • Rebels W-D-L: 0 – 4 – 0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 18 – 33
  • Rebels W-D-L: 0 – 2 – 0

My Prediction: Reds by 18

The Rebels haven’t beaten the Reds in any of the 4 games played between these two teams, including 2 at home. I don’t see that changing this year either, but they haven’t had a completely bad start to the year and barely lost to the Waratahs last week

Highlanders vs Cheetahs

All Time

  • Average Score: 27 – 20
  • Highlanders W-D-L: 7 – 0 – 0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 26 – 15
  • Highlanders W-D-L: 3 – 0 – 0

My Prediction: Highlanders by 11

Both teams are coming from a heavy Chiefs defeat, but the Highlanders have had time to lick their wounds. The Cheetahs are a bit more worse for wear, they’re travelling from 2 weeks of losses, the first to the Sharks at home and then the whipping they got last week in Hamilton

Brumbies vs Waratahs

All Time

  • Average Score: 24-22
  • Brumbies W-D-L: 9 – 11 -0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 31 – 14
  • Brumbies W-D-L: 7 – 2 – 0

My Prediction: Brumbies by 2

History show that home games between these 2 teams favours the Brumbies, but as with any local derby game, anything can happen

Stormers vs Chiefs

All Time

  • Average Score: 26 – 24
  • Stormers W-D-L: 8 – 6 – 0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 23 – 21
  • W-D-L: 4– 2 – 0

My Prediction: Chiefs by 13

The Chiefs have been on fire, so if they can break through the brick wall that is the Stormers defense, they should get a decent gap.

Kings vs Sharks

All Time

  • Average Score: N/A
  • W-D-L: N/A

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: N/A
  • W-D-L: N/A

My Prediction: Sharks by 5

I’m very torn about this game, the Sharks are my favourite team, but the Kings on the other hand are the first local team to get a shot at the Super 15, despite a large percentage of the province’s talent playing now for the other SA teams. I kinda want them to win all possible game this year and based on the support they had against the Force, I expect it to be a major boost for the local team again.

Blues vs Bulls

All Time

  • Average Score: 35 – 26
  • Blues W-D-L: 9 – 5 – 0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 42 – 19
  • Blues W-D-L: 7 – 0 – 0

My Prediction: Blues by 7

The Blues look on fire and they should win this one, although not as easy as you’d think.

Final Table positions prediction:

CL: Conference Leaders

WC: Wildcard Teams

(+/-): Position Change from previous week

  1. (+2) Bulls (CL)
  2. (+1) Crusaders (CL)
  3. (-2) Brumbies (CL)
  4. (+2) Sharks (WC)
  5. Chiefs (WC)
  6. (-1) Blues (WC)
  7. (+2) Waratahs
  8. (-1) Hurricanes
  9. (-1) Stormers
  10. (+1) Kings
  11. (-1) Reds
  12. Highlanders
  13. (+1) Force
  14. (+1) Cheetahs
  15. (-2) Rebels

To view previous predictions and more info on how I get the predictions , click here: https://myconflictedself.wordpress.com/super-15-predictions-archive/

Related articles

March 7, 2013 | Categories: CharlieV the Sports Fan, Information, Rugby, Sports, Super Rugby Predictions | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Super Rugby Predictions #1: Week 3 2013

2012 Super Rugby season

Week 3 Predictions

For several years now, I have been playing a Super Rugby fantasy league game from Ultimate Dream Teams with 2 friends.

When I do things, I tend to go all out, so over time I have created a sort of “prediction engine” which I can’t say works 100% (yet), but I’m still pretty proud of it. For more history on it and for more info on the how and why, have a look at my Super 15 Predictions Archive page (link on top or click here). My first two week’s predictions are also there, since I discovered one or two flaws in my tracking of season stats, which kinda broke my “prediction engine”

For now though here are my week 3 predictions, even though the first game has already ended with the Blues winning 34 – 15 (which like the Hurricanes game last week has pointed out another flaw in my engine – it doesn’t account for a team like the Blues having a surprisingly good start to this year’s competition

Blues vs Crusaders

All Time

  • Average Score:  22  – 26
  • Blues W-D-L: 9 – 12 – 0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 22 – 21
  • Blues W-D-L: 6 – 5 – 0

My Prediction: Crusaders by 12

Even though I thought the Crusaders would walk away with this one, the Blues are surprising me this year

Waratahs vs Rebels

All Time

  • Average Score: 34 – 12
  • Waratahs W-D-L: 4 – 0 – 0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 29 – 15
  • Waratahs W-D-L: 2 – 0 – 0

My Prediction: Waratahs by 13

Can a good looking Rebels team surprise me like the Blues above?

Reds vs Hurricanes

All Time

  • Average Score: 23 – 28
  • Reds W-D-L: 5 – 11 -0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 22 – 24
  • Reds W-D-L: 3 – 5 – 0

My Prediction: Hurricanes by 6

It should be the Hurricanes but who knows

Chiefs vs Cheetahs

All Time

  • Average Score: 27-26
  • Chiefs W-D-L: 2 – 1 -0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 27 – 26
  • Chiefs W-D-L: 2 – 1 – 0

My Prediction: Chiefs by 6

Should be the Chiefs, but the Cheetahs can always surprise.

Bulls vs Force

All Time

  • Average Score: 25 – 23
  • W-D-L: 3 – 3 – 0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 30 – 30
  • W-D-L: 1 – 1 – 0

My Prediction: Bulls by 6

The Bulls don’t have a good record against the Force for some reason, so could go either way

Sharks vs Stormers

All Time

  • Average Score: 20-22
  • W-D-L: 9 – 9 -0

Home Game Advantage

  • Average Score: 21 – 20
  • W-D-L: 5 – 4 – 0

My Prediction: Sharks by 4

Old rivals, pretty evenly matched, could possibly be a serious nail-biter or damn boring game

Final Table positions prediction:

  1. Brumbies (CL)
  2. Crusaders (CL)
  3. Bulls (CL)
  4. Blues (WC)
  5. Chiefs (WC)
  6. Sharks (WC)
  7. Hurricanes
  8. Stormers
  9. Waratahs
  10. Reds
  11. Kings
  12. Highlanders
  13. Rebels
  14. Force
  15. Cheetahs

To view previous predictions and more info on how I get the predictions , click here: https://myconflictedself.wordpress.com/super-15-predictions-archive/

Related articles

March 1, 2013 | Categories: Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments